Some European leaders—seeing Trump’s unscrupulous behavior and taking stock of the United States’ economic and military dominance—are wagging their tails at Trump’s feet. Some shake their heads and grumble disapprovingly but do nothing more for now. Others—like Hungary—are trying to lick both Trump’s and Putin’s hands simultaneously, in the dubious hope of receiving some reward.
France and the United States’ historical ally, Great Britain, are contemplating forming a new pack without American leadership. Both have indicated that they wish to maintain sovereignty over their own territory, Europe. In this effort, they can likely count on Germany’s new center-right and Social Democratic government, as well as the overwhelming majority of European capitals and Eastern European countries—especially Poland and the Baltic states—for support.
A U.S.-Russia agreement, in which Ukraine is looted to secure the U.S.’s strategic raw material needs and a portion of Russia’s reserves is handed over to the United States, does not so much free up energy and strategic resources for Washington to engage in a conflict with China as it renders that conflict less significant. It is unlikely that Trump would redeploy forces to defend Taiwan—if his dependence on the chip manufacturing there disappears, he is more likely to abandon it, seeing it as a strategically worthless country.
This way, he can pose as the great peacemaker, an international dealmaker, and a protection-money-collecting alpha mafioso before his intellectually limited voters, while fully satisfying his profit-hungry financiers—the American and international elite—by supporting their continued ruthless expansion and the limitless enrichment of their shareholders, including his own family.
Putin is like Orbán, just on a larger scale. While the Hungarian Prime Minister’s growing family empire—despite standing on the backs of ten million Hungarians—still barely extends beyond the Carpathian Basin, Trump is a true heavyweight. With the robust American economy and the world’s strongest military behind him, he can rightfully see himself as the master of life and death, or nearly the ruler of the entire world.
If Europeans, who already realize that their fate is at stake, truly unite—if they expel or neutralize internal traitors, first and foremost Hungary, and stand together to take up the fight—they have every opportunity to do so. Though it won’t happen quickly or without serious effort, such unity could usher in a new and extremely unstable historical era, one that will continue to favor China and Russia until the U.S. returns to Europe as its most important ally. Moscow and Beijing will keep floating the idea of, or even establishing, a Russian-Chinese alliance against the similarly isolated United States.
Given the balance of power, it is almost certain that the two rising dictatorships—especially China, growing into an economic and military giant—will not challenge the U.S. directly but will instead target Europe, backed by Russian military threats. The U.S. political and economic elite will likely recognize the dangers of this scenario in the not-too-distant future and put a swift end to the Trump era—using either traditional or even more traditional American methods—to bring the U.S. back onto the only advantageous path: transatlantic cooperation.
It is in the fundamental interest of Europe, its sober-minded leaders, and its 500 million citizens that the concept developed by Trump and his team—summarized in the slogan “America First”—be replaced as soon as possible by a policy of “Transatlantic Alliance First.” This would mean a return to the post-World War II world order, where U.S.-Europe cooperation, backed by America’s overwhelming military superiority, ensured both the United States’ invulnerability and Europe’s sovereignty, protecting its interests and borders against Russian imperialism.
Abandoning Ukraine would be suicide for Europe. Ukraine’s future, in Europe’s interest, lies within the European Union and NATO—or in a European military defense alliance where Ukraine would be a key member if NATO membership were blocked by the United States or anyone else. Under no circumstances should Russia be allowed to interfere in this matter, as Moscow’s vehement opposition to Ukraine’s NATO membership blatantly exposes its true intentions—especially regarding Eastern Europe’s future, which the Russians barely bother to conceal.
Hungary is not a victim of the current situation. It is not at the mercy of world events. Rather, it is a country that, despite its almost negligible influence, has actively contributed to deepening the international crisis, deteriorating Europe’s security environment, and reducing Europe’s influence on global affairs. If it does not change its current approach—and there is no sign of that—it will pay a heavy price, facing consequences far more dramatic than the freezing of EU funds, the first signs of which the Hungarian population is already feeling firsthand.
Hungary’s soaring inflation, the dire state of public finances, the critically poor condition of public services, the increasingly chaotic and unplanned management of the economy, the drive toward nationalization, the dismantling of local governance and civic democracy without resistance, the pivot of foreign policy toward the East, and the freezing of Hungarian-Western relations—all indicate that Hungary’s repositioning into the Chinese-Russian sphere of interest has entered its final phase.
If the Orbán regime, one way or another, ensures its victory in the 2026 parliamentary elections—or if elections are not even held—Hungary will be lost for good. It will find itself in a situation where, since its own citizens are incapable of defending their own interests, only external intervention could force it back into the European cooperative framework. But relying on such an intervention would be as risky as drawing an extra card at eighteen in a game of blackjack. In other words, it must be avoided at all costs.
Whether the Hungarian people have the strength and perseverance for this remains uncertain—but it is not entirely hopeless.
Zsolt Zsebesi
4o
Fidesz-rezisztens forradalmárok a rendszerváltásért 